For SCA folk, some numbers and a question.

[cormac]

I was looking through Caid's Royal Scribe's page, and observing some numbers provided there. Have a look: http://www.catellen.com/eilidhswann/royalscribe_EdricFaizeh.html

Eilidh includes research done by Wilhelm von Frankfurt, who recorded the number of different types of awards given in a four-year period. Taking the numbers a bit further, I calculated the percentage of gentles recognized with one award being elevated to the next level, and came up with some interesting oddities in the numbers.

Field	AoA-level	GoA-level(% AoA)	PoA-level (% GoA, % AoA)
Heavies	16.625	4.125(24.8%)	3.875(93.9%, 23.3%)
Arts	24.375	8(32.8%)	1.75 (21.9%, 7.2%)
Service	45	14.5(32%)	2(13.8%, 4.4%)
Totals	86	26.625(31.0%)	7.625(28.6%, 8.9%)

Here's what I find interesting about this table. There are more Dolphins given than Crescent Swords and Harp Argents combined (ditto with the Crescent to Gauntlet/Lux Caidis ratio). If trends were indicative, the Pelican would be the most commonly given peerage in the realm (from the overall elevation ratio of GoA- to PoA-level awards given, ~4.15 Pelicans would be bestowed every reign). Yet the actual peerage numbers don't reflect this ratio.

In reality, knighthood is the most commonly given peerage in Caid, with more knights being made than Laurels and Pelicans combined. In fact, from the numbers given, one who is admitted to the Order of the Gauntlet is practically guaranteed a knighthood (93% elevation rate) and nearly one in four Crescent Swords given will result in membership in the Order of Chivalry. By contrast, only 4.4% of Dolphins will become a Pelican, with a 13.8% elevation rate for Crescent companions.

Given that AoA- to GoA-level ratios are about the same, why is there such a discrepancy? Why are so many service-related awards given in Caid, but so few service-related peerages? Why is the elevation ratio in the heavies circles so high?

I open the floor for discussion.

Comments

[patgund.livejournal.com]

As of 1 Jan. 2001, the average time in Caid from inital AoA-level award to a Pelican was 7.83 years. Conpare to Knight (3.41 years) and Laurel (4,86 years)

SCA wide, as of 1 Jan. 2001, the average time from inital AoA-level award to a Pelican was 7.83 years. Conpare to Knight (4.03 years) and Laurel (6.03 years)

In Caid, Pelicans also averaged 9.17 awards per person, Knights 8.28, and Laurels 7.5 awards

SCA-Wide, Pelicans also averaged 9.72 awards per person, Knights 8.10, and Laurels 7.78 awards

[aliskye.livejournal.com]

And your point is?

[patgund.livejournal.com]

Simply providing data on the length of time it takes between initial award and peerage level award

It is also interesting to note the length of time per decade. In Caid in the 70's, average time for a Pelican was 3.69 years, in the 80's 5.47 years, and in the 90's 10.30 years. I don't have data past 2001, (I really need to crack the raw data and rebuild that information), but I wouldn't be surprised if the length has increased.

SCA-wide, the 70's were 2.27 years, the 80's were 5.81 years, and the 90's were 9.28 years.

The progression on averages seems to be it takes almost twice as long to get a Laurel than a Knighthood, and twice that to get a Pelican.

[aliskye.livejournal.com]

It doesn't surprise me that the length of time is longer now. (And I'm not unaware of the time....I remember crunching the numbers a few times a while back myself.)

I think the bar should be higher now and I don't think that it's out of line for what should be required for a Pelican. It takes a long time to reach the level of service I think is necessary.